The significant decrease in impact from blast furnace maintenance supported iron ore prices to hold up well [SMM Review]

Today, the most-traded iron ore futures contract continued its strong performance, with the I2601 contract closing at 805 yuan, up 2.03% from the previous trading day. Traders showed moderate willingness to sell, while steel mills exhibited heightened wait-and-see sentiment and tepid purchase willingness. Market transactions remained sluggish. In Shandong, mainstream transaction prices for PB fines rose 10-15 yuan/mt to 795-800 yuan/mt compared with yesterday. In Tangshan, PB fines traded around 805-810 yuan/mt, also up 10-15 yuan/mt from the previous day.

According to SMM statistics, this week (September 6-12), the impact from blast furnace maintenance on hot metal production reached 1.1042 million mt, down 423,600 mt WoW. Following the end of environmental protection-driven production restrictions, hot metal output rebounded rapidly, providing strong support for iron ore prices. Today, the Guinean government required enterprises including Baowu to build local smelters, leading to downward revisions in market expectations for Simandou iron ore supply to China and becoming a key driver of rising ore prices. In the short term, fundamentals and market sentiment are aligned, with ore prices expected to maintain their upward momentum, though the pace of gains may gradually slow.